Saturday, January 24, 2015

The Brady Dilemma

Tom Brady looked like he was in a police interrogation during his Thursday afternoon press conference, because in many ways he was. The type of interrogation where the criminal knows exactly happened, who did it, and why he did it. But coming clean would be disastrous for him, but staying silent could be worse for some of his Patriots co-workers. This is not a good time to be Tom Brady.

Friday morning, ESPN Analyst and former NFL QB Tim Hasselbeck made his weekly appearance on WEEI's Dennis and Callahan show and laid out probably the most plausible explanation for origins of Deflate-gate and how Brady's footballs became deflated. Hasselbeck's credibility on this story gets a boost considering his brother Matt Hasselbeck is currently the backup QB on the Colts, the team that blew the whistle on the scandal.

Hasselbeck laid out the what he believed happened as a fact rather than his own theory. He states that the start of Deflate-gate actually happened back on November 16th during the regular season Pats thrashing of the Colts, during which Devontae Adams picked off Brady twice. Adams, wanting to take two souvenirs of when he picked off one of the greatest QBs in history, gave both balls to the Colts equipment manager. The equipment manager thought both balls felt deflated more than they ought to be. This was brought up during a pre-game meeting the Colts had with officials heading into the AFC Championship game last Sunday. However, head referee Walt Anderson measured the PSI of all the Patriot and Colts footballs before the game and found all to be within the NFL regulations. So game on. Right before halftime, Brady throws an interception to Colts linebacker D'Qwell Jackson, who like Adams, kept the ball as a souvenir and gave it to the Colts equipment manager. The equipment manager once again felt the ball was too deflated and the Colts alerted the referees who decided at Halftime they would re-inspect all of the game balls. Sure enough, almost every Patriots ball was over two pounds under the allowed PSI, the Colts balls were all within the regulations, and the Deflate-gate investigation was started.

Hasselbeck made sure to point out a few things during his appearance. The balls are given back to the Patriots equipment managers after pre-game inspection by the referees. The equipment manager and the starting Quarterback are the only ones responsible or thinking about the condition of the game balls and his belief that no equipment manager employed in the league would ever alter a game ball without the knowledge or instruction of the Quarterback. In other words, Hasselbeck is saying that the Patriots intentionally deflated the balls after they were given back to them by the refs, and more specifically, Brady either told the equipment manager specifically to do it or there was an understanding between the two from previous conversations that Brady wanted the balls deflated. Most have by now heard the audio of Brady on a radio appearance from 2011 in which he does indeed state that he "likes a deflated ball."

This brings us to Brady's big dilemma which is likely the reason why his famous composure was lost at the press conference the other day. Hasselbeck bluntly put who he believed was going to take the fall for this and that's the Patriots equipment manager, whoever that is. I actually tried to find out who is it using a google search for a few minutes with no luck. But that's the point right? If this guy (if its a guy) loses his job, not many people are going to lose sleep about it. Except maybe Brady, and thus the dilemma. Remember Matt Estrella, the Belichick Spygate stooge who was obviously instructed by the coaching staff to film opposing teams defensive signals and was largely never heard from again, until earlier this year when his Superbowl Ring was auctioned off. Give you a few guesses as to why he needed to sell that ring.

As SI's MMQB Peter King correctly pointed out in his column Friday morning, if Brady or Belichick were to admit responsibility for the deflated balls, both would have forced NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell's hand and the only penalty could be suspension from the Superbowl. Very likely their last shot at the Superbowl. For Brady, the consequences could be even worse than possibly being suspended from a 6th Superbowl appearance and that could be a spot in the Hall of Fame. Since the PED scandal in Major League Baseball, Hall of fame voters of professional sports leagues seem to be becoming more and more sensitive to honoring caught cheaters (and in Major League Baseball's case just perceived cheaters) post career. What seemed like a lock for 10 years now of Brady one day having a bust in Canton, if it were to be found out that Brady had either told or implied to the equipment staff to illegally alter his footballs, especially if done for a long period of time, could jeopardize his election into the Hall of Fame one day. Complicating matters more is the fact that its entirely possible that Robert Kraft and Roger Goodell himself want Brady to keep his mouth shut. The last thing Goodell wants at this point is to ban the game's biggest star for the Championship game. This is the only explanation for the NFL dragging its heels on a fairly clear cut investigation. They can't impose any future suspensions until after the Superbowl, or NFL fans and media will ask the question as to why the suspensions don't include the Superbowl. Goodell, and the NFL sponsors know that Russell Wilson vs. Jimmy Garoppolo just won't bring in the same ratings.

Brady's choice is clear, admit what he did and risk losing the Superbowl and the Hall of Fame, or plead the fifth and watch a fall guy whose yearly salary is likely a fraction of his game day salary get canned for his sins. The choice is clear, the answer isn't.